"Dragon Cargo Capsule" Source: SpaceX

Rarely have I seen NASA, especially its human spaceflight program, in such a difficult and conflicted state and I’ve been involved  for 30 years.  The two Space Shuttle disasters were shocking and tragic, and after each many thought the Agency might not recover.  But after making some technical and procedural changes, the Shuttle returned each time to operational status.  Now, our space-related challenges seem more infrastructure and resource-related, and the fixes less obvious. However, it seems increasingly likely that commercial space will have an important role. 

NASA is at a major strategic crossroads, and many think it’s in a quagmire of insufficient resources and overwhelming requirements.  This is made worse by observing new competitors and several of our traditional international partners pursuing collaborative space development among themselves.  To me the most critical needs are 1) for strong Congressional and NASA leadership willing to openly assess our choices and their consequences, and then advocate for and implement difficult resource-related decisions, and 2) for cost-effective improvements in our inadequate space infrastructure.  The latter especially relates to the importance of the emerging entrepreneurial commercial space market, the focus of this story.    

NASA’s human spaceflight problems have been lining up, ominously like dominos.  The short list now includes:
- Budget cuts, cost overruns, schedule delays and technical concerns with the Constellation Program’s development of new crew and cargo transport systems to Low Earth Orbit and “beyond”
- Need to closeout the 30 year old Space Shuttle by 2010 in part because NASA can’t afford to keep the Program going while new transport systems are being developed
- A projected NASA space transport (cargo and crew) gap between 2010 and 2015 (Constellation launcher not yet available) since we will have no way with the Shuttle gone to access Low Earth Orbit except via Russian and/or U.S. commercial spacecraft
- “Reorientation” of most of the microgravity research and development budget from the ISS to Constellation development has reduced the potential science value of the ISS National Lab and our ability to effectively share use of international partner research facilities, thus shrinking the public's return on their major investment

How did this all come about?  NASA has been working for years with a relatively fixed budget (about 0.5% of the Federal total), declining purchasing power, an aging workforce, and lessening public support especially from the younger generation who grew up watching Shuttle disasters, not Apollo successes.  Having reached its 50th anniversary, NASA is often taken for granted and its ongoing infrastructure maintenance and operations costs are steadily increasing in part because of Agency accomplishments (the unstoppable Mars Rovers, Hubble’s latest new “brain”) and some costly program stretch-outs.  Another growing problem is that the traditional NASA way of doing business, with strong dependence on large aerospace companies, has become more costly.  One view is that the “space age” has been replaced by the “information age” which is now becoming the “IT/social networking” age and NASA and traditional aerospace are struggling to adapt to the pace.  Innovation, collaboration and development of products are now driven by smaller entrepreneurial sci-tech entities of a wide variety that are increasingly important for our global, national, and regional economic vitality and sustainability. 

It’s not like NASA hasn’t had many glorious, world-changing successes – it truly has and that will surely continue, if more slowly.  Just consider Apollo, the Deep Space Network supporting global satellite communications, Mars Rover Explorations, the Hubble Telescope and its rebirths, the Space Shuttle with about 125 successful missions, planetary exploration across our solar system, and the nearly-completed International Space Station (ISS), continuously occupied and increasingly operational since 2000.   And these are just the most visible peaks on the mountain. 

Fortunately, there is also some near-term good news.  Beginning around year 2000, a small business space movement of sorts was initiated by several IT billionaires and some others who decided to utilize their resources and business experience in IT and software development to develop more efficient space transportation, a StarTrek-fueled childhood dream for several.  They teamed up with some adventuresome innovative space professionals from the space industry, NASA specialists, non-space technology experts and some “fresh-out” engineers to establish what is often collectively called "NewSpace" reflecting an innovative and entrepreneurial approach to providing much lower-cost, predictable and flexible access to space.  These companies are focused primarily on providing suborbital access services to new space customers mainly in the public sphere, but some, especially high risk-takers like SpaceX who want to provide orbital access services, see the government as a key customer and partner to help them make that giant technology leap.  Complementary collaboration is their goal.  

The U.S. government, especially NASA, eventually saw this as an opportunity to collaborate with entrepreneurial commercial space entities via public-private partnerships wherein technical and financial risks are shared.  This evolved into one of NASA’s most courageous and savvy accomplishments, the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program.  As Dr. Pete Worden, the Director of NASA Ames Research Center and a long-time advocate for increased industry collaboration with government, puts it, the Agency is now “enabling the private sector to help get us into space by mid-wifing this new approach”. 

The emerging entrepreneurial space businesses are mostly small-to-medium size, and include some non-space entities developing products for multiple markets, a smart, perhaps essential business strategy.  Several traditional aerospace companies are involved since they can provide deep and broad technical expertise to support these growing small companies and are interested in future merger and acquisition opportunities and marketing their existing and emerging commercial products more broadly.  Most of these company leaders, many in Congress, and the space advocacy groups believe, as I do, that lower-cost, reliable access to space will open the door to new space investments, many new space-related products and services, new global business collaborations, and increased public involvement in space, and help provide a “space workforce magnet” via hands-on student participation opportunities.

The projected commercial space-related products and services are too many to list but are envisioned to be within areas such as: satellite servicing/refueling; satellite communications, networking and data delivery; global navigation system applications; transport of human/research payloads to suborbital and human/cargo to orbital destinations; research & manufacturing, and potential space-based solar power systems with 24/7 energy transport to Earth. 

We who believe in the value of international collaboration for space development, the utilization of space for monitoring Earth’s environmental health and producing global benefits have an opportunity and responsibility to promote the broad benefits that can accrue from the expansion of the space commerce market.  By partnering with NASA the entrepreneurial space community can help solve some of NASA’s problems, capture some government seed funds, and increasingly obtain private sector resources for entrepreneurial space development.  This will stimulate entrepreneurial space market development and complement the inevitably constrained NASA budgets.  So, keep talking up commercial space!